Physician Job Market Trends
Current data on physician demand, shortage projections, and recruitment benchmarks to help you navigate the competitive healthcare hiring landscape.
Key Market Statistics
Physician Shortage Projections
According to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the US faces a projected shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2036.
Top Specialties in Demand
View Salary Data| Specialty | Demand Level | Est. Openings | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
1Family Medicine | Critical | 5,500+ | +8% |
2Internal Medicine | Critical | 4,800+ | +6% |
3Psychiatry | Critical | 4,200+ | +12% |
4Emergency Medicine | High | 3,900+ | +5% |
5Hospitalist | High | 3,500+ | +7% |
6Radiology | High | 2,800+ | +4% |
7Anesthesiology | High | 2,600+ | +3% |
8Cardiology | High | 2,400+ | +5% |
9Orthopedic Surgery | Moderate | 1,800+ | +2% |
10Gastroenterology | Moderate | 1,600+ | +4% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Merritt Hawkins Physician Recruiting Data
Geographic Distribution of Openings
Top States by Physician Openings
Percentage of total national physician job postings
Rural vs. Urban Hiring Dynamics
Key Market Trends
Aging Physician Workforce
45% of physicians are 55 or older. Over 100,000 physicians expected to retire in the next decade.
Growing Patient Demand
US population 65+ expected to grow 34% by 2036. Older patients require 3x more healthcare visits.
Residency Bottleneck
Medical school enrollment increased 40% since 2002, but residency slots only grew 17%.
Geographic Maldistribution
65% of rural counties are designated Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs).
Burnout & Early Retirement
63% of physicians report burnout symptoms. 1 in 5 plan to leave medicine within 2 years.
Compensation Inflation
Physician salaries increased 4.5% year-over-year. Signing bonuses up 15% for high-demand specialties.
Recruitment Benchmarks
| Metric | Primary Care | Medical Specialists | Surgical Specialists |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Days to Fill | 120-180 | 270-365 | 300-400 |
| Candidates Interviewed | 8-12 | 5-8 | 4-6 |
| Offer Acceptance Rate | 70-75% | 65-70% | 60-65% |
| First-Year Turnover | 8-10% | 6-8% | 5-7% |
| Signing Bonus Avg | $25,000 | $35,000 | $50,000 |
| Relocation Package | $10,000 | $15,000 | $20,000 |
Source: AAPPR Physician Recruitment Benchmarking Report, Merritt Hawkins Survey
Data Sources
Primary Sources
- AAMC - The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand Projections
- Bureau of Labor Statistics - Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
- Merritt Hawkins - Physician Supply & Demand Survey
- AAPPR - Physician Recruitment Benchmarking Report
Additional Resources
- MGMA - Medical Group Management Association Surveys
- Medscape - Physician Compensation Report
- Doximity - Physician Compensation Report
- HRSA - Health Resources and Services Administration Data
Related Resources
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