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Physician Job Market Trends

Current data on physician demand, shortage projections, and recruitment benchmarks to help you navigate the competitive healthcare hiring landscape.

Last updated: December 2025
Sources: AAMC, BLS, Merritt Hawkins, AAPPR

Key Market Statistics

AAMC
86,000
Projected physician shortage by 2036
BLS
45,000+
Current physician job openings
+3.2% from last month
Merritt Hawkins
6-9 months
Average time to fill a physician position
AAPPR
$250K+
Average recruitment cost per physician

Physician Shortage Projections

According to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the US faces a projected shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2036.

Total Shortage
86,000
by 2036
Primary Care
17,800 - 48,000
physician shortage range
Non-Primary Care
21,000 - 77,100
specialist shortage range

Top Specialties in Demand

View Salary Data
SpecialtyDemand LevelEst. OpeningsYoY Growth
1Family Medicine
Critical5,500++8%
2Internal Medicine
Critical4,800++6%
3Psychiatry
Critical4,200++12%
4Emergency Medicine
High3,900++5%
5Hospitalist
High3,500++7%
6Radiology
High2,800++4%
7Anesthesiology
High2,600++3%
8Cardiology
High2,400++5%
9Orthopedic Surgery
Moderate1,800++2%
10Gastroenterology
Moderate1,600++4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Merritt Hawkins Physician Recruiting Data

Geographic Distribution of Openings

Top States by Physician Openings

1Texas
5,400+12%
2California
4,950+11%
3Florida
4,050+9%
4New York
3,150+7%
5Pennsylvania
2,250+5%
6Ohio
1,800+4%
7Illinois
1,800+4%
8North Carolina
1,800+4%

Percentage of total national physician job postings

Rural vs. Urban Hiring Dynamics

Rural AreasSevere Shortage
Physicians per 100k:30-50
Time to Fill:12-18 months
Signing Bonus Range:$50,000 - $150,000
Urban AreasModerate Shortage
Physicians per 100k:200-300
Time to Fill:4-8 months
Signing Bonus Range:$20,000 - $75,000

Key Market Trends

High Impact

Aging Physician Workforce

45% of physicians are 55 or older. Over 100,000 physicians expected to retire in the next decade.

High Impact

Growing Patient Demand

US population 65+ expected to grow 34% by 2036. Older patients require 3x more healthcare visits.

High Impact

Residency Bottleneck

Medical school enrollment increased 40% since 2002, but residency slots only grew 17%.

Critical Impact

Geographic Maldistribution

65% of rural counties are designated Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs).

High Impact

Burnout & Early Retirement

63% of physicians report burnout symptoms. 1 in 5 plan to leave medicine within 2 years.

Moderate Impact

Compensation Inflation

Physician salaries increased 4.5% year-over-year. Signing bonuses up 15% for high-demand specialties.

Recruitment Benchmarks

MetricPrimary CareMedical SpecialistsSurgical Specialists
Average Days to Fill120-180270-365300-400
Candidates Interviewed8-125-84-6
Offer Acceptance Rate70-75%65-70%60-65%
First-Year Turnover8-10%6-8%5-7%
Signing Bonus Avg$25,000$35,000$50,000
Relocation Package$10,000$15,000$20,000

Source: AAPPR Physician Recruitment Benchmarking Report, Merritt Hawkins Survey

Data Sources

Primary Sources

  • AAMC - The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand Projections
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics - Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
  • Merritt Hawkins - Physician Supply & Demand Survey
  • AAPPR - Physician Recruitment Benchmarking Report

Additional Resources

  • MGMA - Medical Group Management Association Surveys
  • Medscape - Physician Compensation Report
  • Doximity - Physician Compensation Report
  • HRSA - Health Resources and Services Administration Data

Related Resources

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