Physician Shortage Statistics: What Recruiters Need to Know

The Physician Shortage Crisis: By the Numbers

The United States is facing a significant physician shortage that will impact healthcare delivery for decades. Here's what every healthcare recruiter needs to know.

Key Statistics

Overall Shortage Projections

• 124,000: Projected physician shortage by 2034 (AAMC)
• 17,800-48,000: Primary care physician shortage projection
• 21,000-77,100: Specialty physician shortage projection

Current Physician Demographics

• 1.1 million: Active physicians in the US
• 45%: Physicians over age 55
• 20%: Physicians planning to retire in the next 5 years
• 117,000: Physicians expected to retire by 2034

Demand Drivers

• Population growth: US population expected to grow 10% by 2034
• Aging population: 65+ population will grow 42% by 2034
• Expanded coverage: More insured Americans seeking care
• Chronic disease: Rising rates of diabetes, heart disease, cancer

Shortage by Specialty

Most Severe Shortages

Primary Care: 17,800-48,000 shortage

Psychiatry: 6,000-15,000 shortage

General Surgery: 3,000-8,000 shortage

OB/GYN: 4,000-8,500 shortage

Emergency Medicine: Growing shortage

Specialties in High Demand

Specialty Family Medicine Psychiatry Internal Medicine Cardiology Orthopedics

Shortage Level	Competition
--		-
Critical	Extreme
Critical	Extreme
Severe	High
Moderate	High
Moderate	High

Geographic Distribution

Most Underserved Areas

• Rural areas: 20% of population, 11% of physicians
• Southern states: Growing population, lagging physician supply
• Inner cities: Access challenges despite proximity to hospitals

States with Largest Shortages

Texas

Florida

California

Georgia

Arizona

What This Means for Recruiters

Increased Competition

Every physician has multiple opportunities. Recruiters must:

• Move quickly when candidates express interest
• Offer competitive compensation packages
• Differentiate on non-financial factors

Changing Candidate Expectations

Physicians increasingly prioritize:

• Work-life balance over maximum compensation
• Administrative support and technology
• Mission-driven organizations
• Flexibility in scheduling

Strategic Implications

Build pipelines early: Engage residents and fellows before graduation

Diversify sourcing: Don't rely solely on job boards

Invest in retention: Replacing physicians costs $500K-$1M+

Consider APPs: Nurse practitioners and PAs can extend physician capacity

The Bottom Line

The physician shortage is not a future problem—it's happening now. Organizations that adapt their recruitment strategies will have a significant advantage in attracting scarce physician talent.

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